Lessons that Quarterback Draft Busts have Taught Us
The NFL Draft is considered the best reality show on television as it creates big-time drama and creates tons of speculation and projection from teams, analysts, and fans alike.
The one position that forces people to pay the most attention, and overdraft, is quarterbacks. For one reason or another, folks talk themselves into quarterbacks time and again with the hope of saving their franchise, and their jobs. Unfortunately, the hit rate on those picks is less than ideal, and the end result is usually those general managers being fired and those players’ careers being ruined.
Every once in a while, the quarterbacks will have a chance at redemption, but rarely do the front office members get one. What is always a guarantee is that a lesson is learned, but how often do we remember them? I wanted to go over some NFL Draft busts at the position and discuss what lessons they taught me as a talent evaluator, starting from my first year diving into the NFL Draft in 2018.
So with that, let’s start by discussing one of the biggest busts in recent memory.
Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals, in 2018
Lesson Learned: Jason Licht has the Right Approach
Following the NFL Draft in April, Bucs general manager Jason Licht made some media rounds to explain his picks. One of whom was wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, who was a surprise pick, and his explanation was simple. He said the character of Egbuka led him to draft him and that in his experiences, he now avoids players who are “d-bags or assholes.”
With all due respect to Josh Rosen, the reports surrounding him leading up to the draft were that he was not the funnest guy to be around.
The 2018 Arizona Cardinals team had some decent players, and an aging Larry Fitzgerald and beaten-down David Johnson highlighted the offense. Rosen did not do much to lift anyone else around him, and he was quickly moved on from as the team hired Kliff Kingsbury and they drafted Kyler Murray first overall in 2019. The lesson was that Rosen clearly had some issues with leadership and his approach in the locker room, which is why he lasted just three years in the NFL before pivoting to the insurance world (I am not lying).
Sam Darnold, New York Jets, in 2018
Lesson Learned: Coaching Matters
Sam Darnold was drafted by a Jets team that current Bucs head coach Todd Bowles led. He would only have him around for one year before the toxic coach that is Adam Gase was hired. He did absolutely nothing for Sam Darnold’s development, nor did the front office give him an offensive line or skill players around him.
Darnold found no success with the Jets, none with the Carolina Panthers in the middle of their coaching carousel, but his time with the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings proved fruitful. Being with offensive gurus Kyle Shanahan and Kevin O’Connell allowed him to finally see the game he needed to after years of experiencing the worst of the NFL.
While the Jets struggle to find their franchise quarterback, Darnold is now playing on a $100 million contract with the Seattle Seahawks, and at a high level. If this isn’t a prime example of how coaching matters, then what is?
Zach Wilson, New York Jets, in 2021
Lesson Learned: Arm Talent isn’t Everything
I love that every year we now get to see quarterback prospects recreate the infamous Zach Wilson roll-out and heave downfield. When it is done, everyone shares the Wilson throw as it is essentially what sets the Jets franchise back all over again.
Head coach Robert Saleh was defensive-minded in his tenure and did a good job of building up that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Wilson looked like he should not have been drafted, let alone been the second overall pick. His arm talent put everyone in a trance, and it made the Jets go all in on him. The lesson he taught was that arm talent isn’t everything, and that is a lesson that it seems most teams have learned since then..
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears, in 2021
Lesson Learned: Reading/Working Defenses Matters
It was controversial at the time, but it is a draft take that has aged like wine, essentially, when it comes to Justin Fields. While the arm talent, mobility, and physical gifts have never been questioned, the mental ability to work a defense has been. At Ohio State, he struggled to work defenses with his eyes and to read coverages in general.
In the NFL, at all of his stops with the Chicago Bears, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Jets, he has shown he just cannot work defenses. He is good enough early on in seasons before teams get the latest film on him, but once they do, he struggles to make adjustments to what they do to stop him. People were enamored with the big arm and dual-threat ability, for good reason, but the lack of working defenses has proven costly for him.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts, in 2023
Lesson Learned: Reps, Reps, Reps, and Reps
Perhaps the scariest lesson in recent memory, and one that is now being held against South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, is the game experience of quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson is the most physically gifted quarterback to come out in some time, with the unique gift of having a cannon of an arm and great vision as a runner.
He had every chance to be something special in the NFL, but the lack of experience proved costly.
When the Indianapolis Colts drafted him, everyone stressed he needed to sit and develop for a year, maybe two. Instead, he was forced into being the starter and it was baptism by fire for him. As a result, he is now benched by the Colts, injured from a resistance band, and will have to wait for his next chance outside of Indy.
The lesson remains important, though, especially in the day of NIL, where quarterbacks are staying longer so they have the experience. When they declare sooner, they need to be given a longer leash and time to develop.